AI shenanigans are getting out of hand...
Ideas to take with you.
- 01
Any AI moat that relies on gating access is structurally leaky — once a model can be used, it can be distilled, resold, or reverse-engineered by rational actors on the periphery.
- 02
Frontier AI capability rations along the same lines as the money supply: those closest to new money creation get first access to the newest capability, and everyone else gets the previous generation on a delay.
- 03
The technology AI companies produce is deflationary by nature — it distributes capability to individuals — while their business models require concentration and moats. That is a structural conflict, not a management problem.
- 04
Bitcoin blocks and frontier AI training share the same asymmetry — costly to create, nearly free to verify — but Bitcoin's design directs that asymmetry toward distribution rather than concentration.
- 05
The financial system's growing exposure to AI companies means retirement funds and index funds are increasingly anchored to businesses whose product undermines the very moats their valuations depend on.
